“There have been preliminary exchanges between the Big Ten and Texas,” the source told the Journal-World on Wednesday. “People will deny that, but it’s accurate.” (http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2010/feb/11/big-ten-making-overtures-texas/?sports)
In the ever changing world of college athletics, it is not entirely inconceivable that a school like Texas would bolt a major conference for another. There are plenty of valid arguments circulating around the message boards and blogospheres on why Texas should jolt to the Big 10 (increased TV revenue, new road trip destinations, perception of a more difficult schedule and Anne Richards and Bob Bullock are no longer in the Capitol building in Austin). However, I can assure you Texas is not going to the Big Ten. After some investigative research it is now clear to me why this story broke and why it escalated to the level it did today. (If you were not paying attention to the sports media world today, this story was everywhere; ESPN, CBS, Fox, blogs, message boards, radio, etc).
Before we get to that though, it is true that the Big Ten is interested in having Texas join the Big Ten (err Eleven) either by itself or with Texas A&M and one other school (probably Pitt or Syracuse) to make 14 schools. In the eyes of the Big Ten, The University of Texas is the single best possible addition to the conference. Putting aside any geographic concerns for the moment, Texas is a perfect fit in almost every possible way from the Big Ten’s perspective. The academics are top notch, Texas is one of the nation’s top 15 public universities in the latest U.S. News rankings and its graduate programs are right alongside Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin as among the elite for public flagships. Plus, the football program in Austin was just ranked as the most valuable in all of college football by Forbes Magazine bringing in over $87.6 million in revenue last year ($20 million more than 2nd place Ohio State). Furthermore, the Texas basketball team isn't too shabby either (well, minus the month of January) and Texas baseball would single handily put Big Ten baseball back on the map. Finally and most importantly, the value of the Big Ten’s traditional TV deals and Big Ten Network revenue would skyrocket with the addition of the #5 (Dallas-Fort Worth) and #10 (Houston) TV markets in the nation plus the entire state of Texas.
It is rumored that the the financial implications for Texas to join the Big Ten are massive. The Big Ten receives around $240 million per year in TV revenue to split evenly among its 11 members, which comes out to $22 million per year for every single school. In contrast, the Big 12 receives $78 million per year in TV revenue that is split unevenly among its 12 members based on national TV appearances. That comes out to $6.5 million per year for the average Big 12 school. Even Texas, which is a beneficiary of the Big 12’s unequal revenue distribution model since it receives a large number of TV appearances, received only about $12 million in TV revenue last season according the interview with Missouri’s AD that was published earlier this year. In other words, every single Big Ten school makes $10 million per year more than Texas does on TV revenue whether such school is on ABC 12 times or the Big Ten Network 12 times.
With these figures being released it is easy to see why this story has escalated to the level that it has. It is very plausible that Texas could be looking at these financial numbers and drooling over the fact that they could be making $10 million more per year by just switching conferences. However, it seems quite ironic to me that this story broke two days after another huge story broke on the 40 acres. Remember a few days ago word broke of the new "Muschamp Rule". If you forgot, or did not hear about this new rule, the NCAA has adopted a new rule, submitted by the Big East conference, that limits the recruiting abilities for coaches who have been designated "head coach in-waiting". Essentially the coach in-waiting can only visit a potential recruit once during the spring, where as assistant coaches do not have any limitations on school visits. Well this new rule set off a firestorm on the 40 acres and throughout burnt orange nation because they felt like they were being singled out. (Texas and Maryland are the only schools that have head coaches in-waiting). Rumors were going around saying well, why doesn't Texas just remove the head coach in-waiting label from Muschamp and move on. Well, because that's not very believable and would probably put NCAA investigators on the next flight down to Austin to sniff around. (And that is never a good idea, ask Oklahoma). But do not worry Texas fans, the administration has a plan and it involves all of these rumors of Texas potentially leaving the Big 12.
It has been discovered that this new "Muschamp" rule has actually not entirely gone into affect yet. It turns out that this rule is currently in a 60-day comment period where DI schools can comment on the rule and have the chance to vote to overturn the rule. Furthermore, if at least 30 schools vote to overturn the rule, the Legislative Council of the NCAA will review the proposal and have the right to suspend the rule. Now, Texas being completely aware of this rule needs to find 28 other schools willing to help them fight this case (Texas and Maryland will obviously vote to overturn the rule, hence only needing 28 more schools). However, Texas has a slight problem. They are known nationally as the "Yankees" of college football. Tons of money, always in the mix for the championship and come off as snobby. This doesn't go over well with other schools and tends to rub them the wrong way. So it is not too entirely far fetched to believe that Texas would not muster up enough support to overturn this rule by itself. Plus, I cannot see why anyone in the Big XII would vote with Texas right now. Texas is on the top of the world and in the minds of the other 11 schools this rule is "fair" and "justifiable". There is no incentive right now for Oklahoma or Nebraska to vote with Texas. And Texas knows this, so in order for Texas to gain support for this override, they'll need to play politics.
Luckily for Texas, they live in a political town and know how to play hardball. See they realize that they are known as the "Yankees" of college football, people claim to despise them, but in reality would love to be them or have them along side of them ringing in the cash registers too. And plus, Texas knows that the Big Ten and Pac 10 Conferences want to add teams in order to get to the magical "12-team" threshold so they can host a conference championship game and collect 100% of the profits. So in the past, when these conferences have called inquiring about possible expansion, Texas probably just laughed and hung up. However, this time around is different, Texas needs votes!
This time around, if Texas "pretends" to listen to their offers and have "preliminary" talks with these two conferences, they now have gained an upper hand, not only between the two bidding conferences (what are you going to do for me attitude) but it also puts the other 11 members of the Big 12 conference in limbo too. What would the Big 12 look like without Texas? It would more than likely crumble, in my opinion. Because if Texas leaves, you can guarantee Texas A&M is gone too and most likely Colorado as well. All Texas has to do is tell the Big Ten and Pac 10 "Hey, if you vote to overturn this new idiotic "Muschamp" rule, we'll seriously consider joining your conference. However, if you don't get your institutions to over turn this rule, good-bye." The same principle is applied to the Big 12 front office. With the Big Ten and Pac 10 salivating at the chance to steal Texas from the Big 12, all Texas has to do is call the Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe and say, "Hey Dan, the Pac 10 and Big Ten are calling and we're listening. What are you going to do for me? You know, it sure would be nice if you got these little dwarfs in our conference to go ahead and vote with us on this new "Muschamp" rule, thanks!" All Texas has to do is pretend to listen and threaten to leave and there are your 30 votes to overturn this new rule. And that my friends is exactly what Texas is doing.
(Note: This story has not been confirmed with anyone affiliated with The University of Texas at Austin and is based solely on my opinion. Plus, we all know the real reason why Texas won't go anywhere with out A&M...Rick Perry is an Aggie).
This winter has definitely been an unusual winter in the fact that so many different patterns and outbreaks have occurred all over the country. There have been record breaking snow storms in the Mid-Atlantic and Southern regions of the country, a constant flow of arctic reaching the gulf coast and an above average temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. Most of this can be associated with the "blocking" pattern that has occurred over Canada that has allowed arctic front after arctic front to push southward uninterruptedly. With the influx of arctic air in place and the active southern jet stream due to an "El Nino" year, the frequency in which winter storms have occurred is not surprising to most meteorologists. 
