A New Era?

This Week in the Southwest Conference

October 26, 2010

By Dave Roberson

It is one of the most exclusive clubs in all of sports. After 12 years there are only 12 members. During its first three years of existence, only four candidates were admitted; after five years it was up to seven. Then, for the next four years only one new applicant per year was admitted. No one was considered worthy for admission the next two years. Then last year there was finally another new member initiation. What exclusive club is this? It is the BCS Championship Club. It is the total number of teams that have been invited to participate in the BCS Championship Game since 1998. The distinguish dozen are OU with four appearances; Florida St and Ohio St with three; Florida, LSU, Miami, Texas and USC with two; and one each for Alabama, Nebraska, Tennessee, and Va Tech. This compares with 65 teams per year in basketball (soon to be 68) and another 64 teams per year in baseball. If this seems just a little out of proportion, join the 90+% of college football fans who agree. But this year the BCS may have a problem developing. The top six teams this week are not club members and only Alabama and OU can be found in the Top 10. There are seven undefeated teams (all non-members) left in six conferences. The only undefeated teams left that have to play each other are TCU and Utah. Unlikely, but we could have as many as six undefeated teams left at the end of the year. I am sure there is much angst in the BCS headquarters. So many new applicants demanding admission and only two slots open. What is an elitist to do? USC is on probation, Texas is in the toilet, and Florida has lost three in a row. And are they still playing football in Tennessee? Maybe there will be a total collapse in November and the planet can be saved with an OU vs. Ohio St national championship game. But don’t count on it. There should be new blood this year and it should be fun.

We lost the #1 slot this week, congrats to Auburn. But we still have six teams in the Top 25 and that is six teams without Texas! I will have a whole lot more about Texas later. TCU continues to do what it has done a lot of lately and that is beat the next team on its schedule. Air Force has only two losses this year and both are to SWC teams. They barely lost to former #1 OU and were destroyed by current #4 TCU. Fortunately for them they are finished playing the SWC this year. If they could have only scheduled Texas instead of Texas Christian, they would be a Top 20 team this week. Arkansas bounced back from their loss at Auburn with a nice home win against Ole Miss and Tech went up to Boulder and came through as I thought with an important road win against Colorado. On the down side it was a couple of tough losses for the Sooners and Cowboys. Rice collected another L and LSU ran into a bigger, badder Tiger in Auburn. Our conference game of the week saw UH bounce back, playing their best game in a month against SMU. But the story of the weekend came from Waco, Texas. For Baylor fans it was Christmas in October; the Bears are going bowling. Every win from here is just a step up the ladder. From Shreveport, to Houston, to San Antonio, to San Diego, where you land nobody knows. Congratulations and have a great party. Last week I said that A&M was banished unless they showed a pulse. 45 to 10 qualifies as a pulse, so welcome back Aggies.

After a couple of weeks of really great intersectional games with #1 teams, this week is more relaxing, okay boring. Arkansas, OU and OK St should have no problems with Vanderbilt, Colorado and Kansas St. I have UH over Memphis, SMU over Tulane, and TCU crushing UNLV. Since Rice is off, we should actually sweep the non-conference games this week. The only games with any intrigue at all are the conference games and we have a couple of interesting ones this week. First, let’s look at A&M hosting Tech. Both are 4-3. Tech needs the game to get closer to bowl qualification. They still have Webber State on the schedule, so a win in College Station probably guarantees the magic six wins. A&M however is looking at OU, Baylor, Nebraska and Texas to finish the season. A loss to Tech just about guarantees a Christmas vacation with Mom and Dad; just what a 20 year old wants. An Aggie win gives them hope in their Turkey Day trip to Austin and that’s just what a Longhorn wants this year; an Aggie with hope. Sorry Ags, Vegas may like you this week, but I see the Red Raiders riding away with an upset. Now, let’s examine the Baylor – Texas game. As usual, it is a ranked team against a struggling team; one team coming off a great win and one a demoralizing loss. One with a national top ten offense and one being pushed all over the field. As usual, but with the roles reversed. Baylor is soaring at 6-2 and Texas is lost in the wilderness at 4-3. Baylor has scored at least 30 in every game except for its loss to TCU. Texas has only scored more than 30 twice. Yet Texas is a touchdown favorite. Do you want to bet on Texas? Didn’t think so. Want to say this is a gimme for Baylor? Yea right. Texas is embarrassed and Colt is back this week. No, not to play QB, but to be honored and have his jersey retired. There will actually be some emotion Saturday night at DKR. Only problem for Texas is that Baylor has both confidence and momentum going for it, two powerful forces to be sure. So what is it? It is probably going to be the best Texas – Baylor game in a generation.

Ok, I have gone long enough ignoring it. The question that I have been hearing constantly since 2:30 last Saturday afternoon is “what is the matter with Texas?” The easy answer is that if I knew, I would sit down with Mack and tell him. When Mack is asked, he uses words like arrogant and entitled to describe both his players and his coaches. But didn’t Mack recruit every player on the field and hire every coach on the sideline? Were they arrogant and entitled when he brought them in or did they learn it when they got to Austin? When Muschamp was asked his opinion Monday, his brilliant reply was “I don’t know?” And he is the heir apparent to the program. Greg Davis gave the best answer; he actually said he takes responsibility for it. But what does that really mean? Does it mean he actually designed the mess that we witnessed and then taught it to the offense all week or does it mean he watched the Wyoming film last Saturday and prepared for the wrong game? Well, Texas does open against Wyoming in 2011, so maybe he is already thinking next year. Since I do not think any of the three have the whole answer, what if each has a part of it. Let’s start with “I don’t know.” The coordinator that designed one of the best defenses in the nation last year says he does not know. Apparently, whatever Will is trying to do is just not getting through to his players. Is it because of arrogance and entitlement? Is that how you play lights out against Nebraska and with passion against OU, but just put a uniform on for Rice, UCLA, and Iowa St? And finally, let’s look at Mr. I Take Responsibility. Prior to the Iowa St game in 2003, with the exception of the games he let Major Applewhite start, Coach Davis had to actually design an offensive and call the plays. And if you remember those days, we definitely underperformed on offense. Then starting with that Iowa State game in 2003, he turned the team over to VY and the Horns went 30-2, with a 20 game winning streak and a National Championship in January 2006. Now if you watched the same games I did, I would say that VY let Coach Davis suggest a play now and then, but VY would decide what would actually happen. Sometimes even he did not know what that would be until after the ball was snapped. Then there was 2006 through January 2010. Colt came along and he and Shipley designed the offense. They even had that play with the boat in case they had a really raining game. Davis seemed to ride along and Texas only went 45-8 those four years and once again playing for a National Championship. So 2010 comes along and for the first time in seven years Davis actually has to design an offense. He has a sophomore QB that has neither VY’s talent nor Colt’s understanding of the game. He is being exposed as to who he is; a rather uninspiring, uncreative coordinator. Mix that with defensive players who choose when to play and you have a collection of very talented players, but not a very good team. And one more trip by the arrogant and entitled comment. The fans and students also need to look themselves in the mirror on this one. Yes it was only Iowa State and yes it was an 11 am start and yes there was a mist in the air. But apparently there was less than 5,000 in the stands when the teams came onto the field to warm up and those were mostly Iowa St fans. I cannot say for sure because I was not yet in Section 117, Row 1. When the team came out to start the game, my guess is that there were maybe 50,000 in the stadium with the student section less than half full. This is first hand knowledge because I was there by then. Whatever Mack had done that morning to pump the players up was deflated in a second. So what does this mean for the rest of the season? My guess is that they will play one or two really inspiring games the rest of the year, but that will be about it. Only the players can turn this season around, but I do not think they will. We are probably looking at a 7-5 team and I have absolutely no clue as to where the 3 remaining wins come from and who the 2 losses are against. So yes Coach Davis, pull that Wyoming film out and get ready for the 2011 season. This one appears done.

2011 Winter Outlook

Get your tee times lined up for the upcoming winter months!

The main player governing the National Weather Service's forecast for this winter is the phenomenon called La Nina, when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. The forecast calls for La Nina to strengthen through March, which will result in above normal temperatures throughout the South.

Boomer Sooner....?

This Week in the Southwest Conference

October 19, 2010

By Dave Roberson

Boomer Sooner! SWC team sits at #1 in the BCS. Hoppin’ Horned Frog! SWC team sits at #5. Tiger Bait! SWC team sits at #6. Throw in numbers 14, 19 and 23 and you have one-half of the conference in the Top 23. Even if you include Nebraska in the Big Ten, they only have 5. Who says that a SWC could not compete? Look at the performance versus other conferences. The SWC has a winning record against every conference, except the Big Ten (0-1). Rice lost to Northwestern back in September.

Overall, week 7 was a great week for the conference. It was Varsity Letter day in Norman, where even 3^rd teamers and walk-ons played. BYU kicked a meaningless second half FG to break the TCU shut-out streak. LSU spent the week preparing for Auburn as they won one of their mid-season scrimmages in yawning fashion. Oklahoma St doubled up Tech. And Baylor did what Baylor has not done in a very long time. They went on the road and beat a BCS team. Sic ‘em Bears! Congratulations Rice on reclaiming the Bayou Bucket from UH. Tough luck to SMU on losing a hard fought game to a good Navy team in Annapolis. Then there was Texas A&M. The good news is that A&M was on TV, which actually turned out to be bad news. I tried to watch the game. Honestly, I tried. But Indiana and Arkansas State were playing their hearts out in a thrilling 36-34 game. I did click back and forth a couple of times to the A&M game. I tried, I really did. As tough a time as I was having though, I can only imagine what it was like to be there in person. But that’s rhetorical because on my last channel jump I could not find anyone wearing maroon left in the stands. To make matters even worse, when I look at their remaining schedule, I can’t find a win for them. So, unless the Aggies can find a pulse and to keep from kicking a dog when she is down (sorry Reveille), I will next write about Texas A&M in the 2011 pre-season blog.

That brings us to the two huge highlights of the weekend. I’ll start with the Hogs visiting the Plains of Eastern Alabama. I did predict an Auburn win, but I never thought that 108 points would be scored. If you bet on this one, I sure hope you had the over. Do you get a double payout if the teams double the over? The nation may not have known about Cam Newton before last Saturday, but anyone who follows college football does now. I like to call him little Vince. If you have not seen him play, you need to catch a game on TV and this week is a good one, but more on that later. And then there was Texas. The Horns played an almost perfect first half, completely taking Nebraska and their fans out of the game. The second half was not as crisp, but as I am known to say, all you really want on the road is to collect the W. Put up the style points at home. Some nicks to two defensive starters gave a couple of freshmen important playing time and they responded well. How about a tip of the 10-gallon hat to ole Bevo?

And now an editorial comment on Nebraska. I try not to stray too often from the SWC, but I want to get one last comment in on Nebraska bolting the Big 12 for the Big Ten. First, I need to thank the Cornhuskers for perfecting their exit strategy, because if my dream of a SWC is ever to get even a conversation, we needed someone like Nebraska to say adios. So, here is a late Paul Harvey “Rest of the Story” moment. Sorry to the younger readers who are saying Paul who? Just stay with me. If the truth were known, Nebraska never was excited about this whole Big 12 concept in the first place. They really had a sweet deal going in the Big 2, Little 6 (aka Big 8). They only played one game a year and that was at the end of the season against Oklahoma. They had all season to get ready for the Sooners, and sometimes they actually won. They would then take their occasional 10-0 or 11-0 record into a bowl game, win a couple of them and claim a National Championship or two. Then came along the Big 12 and that little gig was soon over. Every year they now had to play either Texas or Oklahoma during the regular season and then, if they won the North Division, it was generally either Texas or Oklahoma again in the Championship game. See a pattern developing here. Bye bye national championships. They did claim a split national championship with Michigan in 1997 during Osborne’s last year. But that was before Mack and Big Game Bob arrived in Austin and Norman respectively and that was the last time we heard anything out of Nebraska. Here are the sobering facts. Since the start of the Big 12, Nebraska is 1-8 against Texas, 4-5 against OU, 3-3 against OSU (losing 3 of last 4), 4-4 against Tech (including a 70-10 loss in 2004 and a current 4 game losing streak). Within the Big 12 South, Nebraska only has a winning record against A&M and Baylor. I will let you connect the dots, but there appears to be too much pride in Lincoln for third fiddle, at best.

With that little rant out of the way, how does Week 8 shape up? Another great weekend for sure. Starting from the top, we have OU at Missouri at 7 CT on ABC. Mizzou is good, but not that good. OU is starting to get better every week and they will go to 7-0. TCU is at home against the Air Force. Another good game, but another win for the Frogs. Air Force will probably score a couple of times, but Andy Dalton will get his team into the end zone 3 or 4 times. Then there is a cat fight for the ages; LSU at Auburn and both undefeated. Mike the Tiger taking on Aubie. Dial this one up at 2:30 CT on CBS and see how many players Les Miles can sneak on the field in the 4^th quarter. Take the over on this one and bet the Tigers to win. Oklahoma St hosts Nebraska. See rant above and see Oklahoma St go to 7-0. Texas will wake up in the second half (11 am CT start on Fox Sports) and pull away from Iowa St. The Hogs will make a stand in the hills and run the Rebels back to Oxford. Baylor will punch their bowl ticket before Halloween with a Homecoming win against Kansas St. Tech will go into Boulder and repeat what the Bears did last weekend. Rice goes to Disney World for a game at 4-2 Central Florida. I really want to put a W in the column for the Owls, but I do not see it this week. Hang in there Owls. Our conference game is at the Hilltop in Dallas where UH plays SMU at Ford Stadium. I see Peruna running past Shasta in a high scoring win for the Mustangs. And last, there is a scheduled game in Kansas, but that is all that I will say.

Put your team colors on, grab your favorite beverage, and see you next week. Oh, and let’s hope this Indian Summer is gone by Trick or Treat.

Mid-Term Week in the SWC

It is mid-term and the professor gives the SWC a good solid B+. Five teams are in the Top 20, TCU, OU, LSU, ARK, and OK St. Excellent! Baylor and SMU are definitely meeting expectations and I am giving UH a pass for a couple of weeks as they try to get it going again behind their third string, freshman QB. It is the last four; however, that has me concerned. I understand that somebody has to finish last, but it can’t always be the same team. I am worried about Rice. I need to see something from the Owls in the second half or they may have to go on probation for 2011. As for Tech, you cannot get whacked by Iowa State and call yourself a quality program. And as bad as that may be, Texas laying eggs in front of 100,000 fans two weeks in a row is just not acceptable in Austin. Then there are the Brazos Bottom Boys. To understand the Ags I needed to break this one down by subject matter. They mastered Texas History with their whacking of Stephen F. Austin and did ok in engineering by beating La Tech. But then again Louisiana engineering is not as tough as say Texas engineering or Georgia engineering, so I really do not know what to make of that. Geography was tough on them when they were asked if Florida International was in the USA or somewhere else. It took awhile, but they eventually got that one right also. But it was what should have been the easy stuff, Ag Science, which concerns me. The Farmers first got rounded up by the Cowboys and then last week they could not get a handle the Hogs. All this is to say that the Ags are definitely underperforming at mid-term. But all in all, there is a lot more going well in the conference than bad. Let’s hope the second half is at least as strong.

Week 6 played out as generally expected. TCU shutout an opponent for the second week in a row, LSU got by Florida, OK St woke up in the second half and blitzed La-La, Rice lost to UTEP, UH lost to Miss. St., and the Tornados swept the Hurricanes. Both of the conference games were competitive, but Tech prevailed over Baylor and ARK took care of A&M. A little bit more on the conference action. It has been a near wipeout of the northern teams over the southern. Except for Texas beating Tech, every interdivisional game has gone to the twisters. This just shows how weak A&M and Texas have been so far this year.

Week 7 could be called Turnaround Week. Or it could be called Try to Hang on to Your Recruits Week. First let’s look to Lincoln, NE. Is Texas going to have its first 3 game losing streak in the 21^st Century or does Nebraska go down? Mid-term grades say Nebraska rolls at home. History says that Texas plays Nebraska very well, at home, on the road, or in a neutral site. All I will say is that I will be watching this one. A&M gets the ranked Missouri Tigers at home. This is a tremendous opportunity for the Ags. Pull this one out and they could get on a roll. Lose it and Mike Sherman may want to interview Real Estate agents. SMU has a chance to make a real statement going to Annapolis and playing a good Navy team. TCU could make it three shutouts in a row hosting BYU (not to be confused with BYE, but about as tough). LSU should absolutely destroy McNeese St. Folks, McNeese St barely beat my alma mater Lamar in Week One and Lamar has not played football since 1990. Lamar has no seniors on the team. This game should be over after about 5 minutes. OU will scrimmage Iowa St in Norman and Baylor can keep their best season in years alive with a win in Boulder over the Buffs. That leaves us with ARK at Auburn for our last non-conference game of the week. This game is at the same time as Texas – Nebraska (2:30 CT). Make sure you have new batteries in your remote control because this could be a constant jump back and forth. Jordan-Hare will be absolutely insane with noise. The Hogs better bring their A+ game or the Tigers will eat them like a pulled pork sandwich.

That leaves us with the conference games of the week. It is intra-divisional play this week with OK St visiting Lubbock and Rice and UH playing for the Bayou Bucket. Hard to say how these will play out. OK St should prevail, but Tech generally plays very well on the South Plains. UH would have been a big favorite if Keenan was still at QB, but this could be a nice win for the Owls.

So let’s go back to the midterm report card. What will it take to bring the conference grade up to an A at year end? We will need three of the top five to finish in the Top 10. Baylor and SMU need to keep it going and get bowl invites. UH needs to hit the 8 win mark and Rice needs to bag 2 wins in the second half. But for the conference to be a solid A, Texas needs to bag Nebraska this week, Tech needs to get its mojo back, and if A&M can bag two out of Mizzou, KU, and Nebraska then the final report card will look very good. Then go out and win more bowl games than lose and the conference will have some real bragging rights going into 2011. Have TCU or OU win the national championship and you will have the greatest conference in the country.

And in a closing note, I want you to think about this. Imagine going to a football game in a beautiful setting, on a truly gorgeous early October afternoon, in a rivalry game between two teams that first played in 1884. Then imagine walking up to the ticket box (I mean literally a green box) and dropping down a $10 bill for a sideline reserved seat. Take another $10 bill to the concession and come away with 3 boxes of popcorn, a diet coke, a large chocolate chip cookie, and $3.25 in change. Watch an exciting game of back and forth football that never once stops for a beer commercial; that is decided on the last play of the game when the visitors bang a FG off the right upright and the ball drops through good. Then after the game have the starting right tackle give you a tour through the home team’s locker room, meet up with the head coach and discuss how tough the loss was. Well, yours truly had that experience last Saturday when I went to the Dartmouth – Yale game in Hanover, NH. The game had absolutely nothing to do with the BCS championship, but it is an experience that I will always cherish. I strongly recommend that just once you search out a special game, maybe Army – Navy and experience football in a little bit more pure setting. Do not get me wrong, my greatest college football experience ever was Texas – USC in the January 2006 Rose Bowl. But a football game between true student-athletes in a game of pride and tradition is something you need to add to your resume.

Have a great week.

This Week in the Southwest Conference

How about those Baylor Bears.? I do not know how many times Baylor will get the headlines, but you have to hand it to them. After calling them out a couple of weeks ago, they go out and lay 55 on Kansas. I know that Kansas is just waiting for basketball season, but come on, give Baylor some love. They should have destroyed the Jayhawks and what do you know, they actually did. On the other end of the winning scale, what is going on in Baton Rouge? Weird things happen in Death Valley, but I can’t imagine that anyone has figured out what happened Saturday night. All we know is that the Bayou Bengals escaped with a win and the Miles haters have to wait another week to send him down the tracks. But don’t worry, with three of the next three four at the Swamp, at Auburn, and then back at home against ‘Bama, you can start warming up the train.

Week 5 was all about the Tornado Division. It started on Thursday night in the Battle of the Land Grants when Oklahoma St sent a FG through the uprights as the clock expire sending the Ags home on the short end of the score. Both teams blew 14 point leads, so a FG at 0:00 seemed just the way to end the game. On Saturday, the Crimson and Cream blew into the State Fair of Texas and stuffed Bevo into one of those corny dog vats. Bevo was already licking his wounds from the mauling by the Bruins last week, so you are looking at one beat up steer. Good thing BYE is showing up in Austin this week. That is a team searching for an identity. Throw in the Mustangs running wild in Rice Stadium and you have a 3-0 sweep by the twisters. In non-conference action, TCU turned in another boring 27-0 win. It is amazing that people are actually gripping about how TCU wins. It was not that long ago that any win was parade worthy in Ft. Worth. Friends, this is a program that is doing just about everything right. If the Frogs can keep Patterson, they might keep turning out 10+ wins per year for a long time. And out of respect for the dead, I will not even mention what happened in Ames, Iowa.

The headliners this week are the Arks and the Ags battling across the street from Six Flags and the Bears going out to the South Plains. If A&M can get through a game with less than 4 turnovers, we might be able to see what they can do. My guess though is that Jerrod will play catch with the defense and the Hogs will run wild in Arlington. As for Baylor and Tech, you may be seeing two programs going in opposite directions. Baylor has been trying to work the TCU model, but has had much tougher competition over the past 15 years. They finally have the right coach, they seem to have a good QB, and maybe this is their break out season. Keep your eye on the Bears; I see them beating Tech by two TDs. Another good match up this weekend is UH hosting Miss St. Terrance Broadway has had two weeks to get ready and the freshman QB gets to see what a big bad SEC team looks like. If Case was rolling along in mid-season form, I would put this one in the win column for the Coogs, but Miss St should prevail in a close one. TCU should have another boring win against Wyoming (even Texas could beat Wyoming) and Les Miles may not survive his trip into the Swamp. Ok St may hang a hundred on La-La and Rice is already talking about baseball season.

Let’s hope the fabulous weather continues and see you next week.