Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Houston Texans Playoff Picture


If you're a fan of the Houston Texans you're probably asking yourself "do the Texans really have a chance to make the playoffs". Well, the answer is yes. Albeit a very slim chance, where multiple pieces have to fit together. Currently there are 8 teams vying for 2 wild card spots and an additional 2 teams (New England and Cincinnati) that still haven't locked up their divisions. Baltimore and Denver are currently (8-6) and the other 6 teams, including Houston are (7-7). Of all the teams competing for the playoffs, the Texans are the longest of the long shots. They are resting at the bottom of the tiebreaker barrel because they are 4-6 in the AFC.

Mathematically the Texans are still not eliminated because there are scenarios out there that will enable the Texans to make the playoffs. I am sure there are multiple scenarios, but I think I have found a scenario that isn't too far fetched. (I completely realize this is a complete and utter long shot, but it's Tuesday and my dreams are still alive so I am having fun with it).

I have attached a spreadsheet that helps explain:






Sunday, December 20, 2009

North American Snow Cover Map


After this past week's impressive storm, here is a map reflecting the current snow cover across North America.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Rose Bowl Ticket Update


As most of you have heard by now, tickets to the 2010 BCS National Championship game are hard to come by. This year, each team (Texas and Alabama) was only alloted 19,000 tickets each to distribute to their fans, students, and spirit groups. (When Texas played USC in the Rose Bowl 4 years ago, Texas and USC were alloted 25,000 tickets each). The Rose Bowl seats just over 92,000, but for the National Championship game they are bringing in an addition 8,000-10,000 seats. So just over 1/3 of the tickets sold to this game are actually going to the fans of the teams involved. The majority of the remaining tickets are distributed to corporate sponsors, such as the title sponsor Citi Bank. (Yes, the same company that was taken over by the gov't last year). It should also be noted that a few thousand tickets were set aside for Pasadena residents to purchase.

All in all, if you're wondering why you're a student or a member of the Longhorn Foundation and didn't get a ticket to the game, this is why. The LHF had over 30,000 requests, combined with the over 5,000 requests from the students (mostly of whom were Seniors), the LHF could not possibly fill all requests.



***Note: The cutoff for tickets in the LHF was $1,500 annual donation with a cumulative donation total of $8,000.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Health Care Update:


As the Christmas recess nears in Congress, the chatter over Health Care Reform in Washington has heated up again. President Obama has stated over and over again that he would like a bill to sign before Christmas. However, the events that have unfolded this week will likely stall the request of the President. If you’re anything like me, you probably keep hearing murmurs that the Health Care Bill is essentially dead. I’ve been asked a few times this week is the bill really dead? Well, I have to admit that since about August I have completely lost track of the status of this legislation and from the tone of most of the people I associate with on a daily basis, they have too. With that in mind, I will attempt to provide a synopsis on what is going on and try to determine what the future holds.

The raucus that you hear on t.v. and read on the internet (or newspaper) this week all has to do with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), although he's an Independent he is a key voter in the Democratic caucus. First of all, Sen. Lieberman came out a few weeks ago and said he was against any public option. So Senate Democrats took out the public option and replaced it with a private option with prices negotiated by the government. Senate Democrats need Lieberman's support so they were willing to negotiate with him. Part of the negotiations ended with Democratic leaders inserting a provision that would expand Medicare down to 55-year-olds. These provision, although not perfect in Liberal Democrats eyes, were enough to please most of them just so they could claim they passed a bill. However, a new week leads usually leads to a new stance from someone in Washington. This week that came from that rogue Independent Senator from Connecticut. Breaking news on Monday was that the Senate Democrats have agreed to kill the expansion of Medicare to 55-year-olds in order to please Sen. Joe Lieberman. This is very interesting given that from the outside, it seems that Lieberman does not really have any policy objection to expanding Medicare. He ran for Vice President in 2000 on a platform promising this and as recently as three months ago argued for a public option. The only reasonable conclusion one can assume is that he is trying to punish the Liberals who opposed him in his 2006 primary election. By denying liberals something they really wanted and giving them nothing in return, he made it clear that he is a force to be reckoned with in Washington. Another reason might be that Lieberman is carefully watching the political climate and is positioning himself for the 2012 election and might consider running as a Republican (just think opposite of Arlen Spector ala 2009). And voting for this version of the Health Care bill would without a doubt eliminate the remote possibility of him running as a Republican. Then there is always the question of where does Sen. Lieberman's "true" pay checks come from? It wouldn't be surprising to find out that he has major contributors in the insurance industry. In my opinion, his ultimate decision to abandon the Liberal Democrats on this issue probably has to do with a combination of all three possibilities.

This move by Lieberman puts the Liberal Democrats in a very difficult situation. With other moderate Democrats vacating on their votes as poll numbers continue to slip for support of this bill to all-time lows, the question has been asked if Harry Reid and Senate Democrats get this done by the President's arbitrary deadline of Christmas? I believe that the longer they spend talking about this (and we all know it's been a while), the more disillusioned Democrats will look, and the more frustrated the voters will get in an election year. Furthermore, and potentially and even bigger problem, is how does Harry Reid handle Lieberman? It is very unlikely Lieberman will be punished by his Liberal caucus because they will need his vote in the future; and on some issues he is arguably a vital member of the progressive movement. For example, his committee is about to pass a bill that would extend marriage benefits to same-sex partners of federal employees, something that many people who despise his stand on health care actively want. He has also taken a fairly progressive stand on climate change throughout the years.

So who is taking all the heat for the stall on this bill? Well, Howard Dean has taken some heat this week from the President for trying to intervene, but the real heat is directed towards Senate majority leader Harry Reid. The Liberal wing of the party is angry with Reid for giving in to Lieberman and getting nothing in return. (If you happened to flip by MSNBC this week, you’ll notice the frivolous attacks). Sen. Reid said he had no choice, but in reality he had other options. For example, I heard that he could have told Lieberman that if he filibustered the bill, it would be passed anyway using the budget reconciliation process and Lieberman could be stripped of his committee chairmanship for being an obstructionist.

Another option that Sen. Reid apparently could have done is the so-called "nuclear option," which the Republicans threatened to use in 2005 when Democrats were preparing to filibuster George Bush's court appointments.Pulling out the nuclear option is clearly hardball and something that would more than likely backfire in future sessions. The “nuclear option” works like this.

"After some debate on the health-insurance bill, Reid could recognize a Democratic senator who called for an immediate vote on the bill. Without a doubt some Republican would raise a point of order claiming that Senate rule 22 prohibits a vote unless 3/5 of the senators agree to cut off debate. The Senate's presiding officer, Vice President Joe Biden, would then ask the Senate Parliamentarian, Alan Frumin, whether the point was valid.Frumin would say it was, but Biden could overrule him and call for an immediate vote anyway. Some Republican would surely object to this ruling from the chair and ask the Senate to decide. If a simply majority of the Senate agreed with the ruling, the vote would take place. In other words, when the meaning of a Senate rule is in dispute, the presiding officer makes a decision, which the full Senate can sustain or overrule. Changing Senate rules requires 67 votes, so that is not going to happen any time soon".


It is highly probably that Reid didn't go this route because he was worried that in some future Republican-controlled Senate, the Democrats might want to filibuster something and don’t want the Republicans to have this ammunition in their back pocket as revenge.

So what is left of the Senate bill since the "public option" and expansion of Medicare are gone? What's left is a bill that requires every American not covered by Medicare, Medicaid, or the VA system to buy health insurance from a private company. It also provides about $900 billion in subsidies to poor people to help pay for it. (I can’t find what the definition of “poor” is under this bill). From the insurance companies' point of view, this is a good deal -- they really don't care who is paying the bill. It is estimated that about 30 million people will now be covered who weren't in the past. At its core, the bill is about the government buying health insurance from private companies for 30 million people who can't afford it now. As a result, this bill is the largest expansion of insurance coverage since the enactment of Medicare in 1965.

But the bill fails to include the two most important things that originally started this debate in the first place: cost containment and insurance company malpractice. For most people, they are pretty much stuck with whatever insurance their employer chooses to offer. In practice, they have no choice because getting individual insurance is prohibitively expensive except for the young and healthy. While insurance companies are now forbidden from refusing to accept people with preexisting conditions, they are not prohibited from dragging their feet and providing terrible service to people they don't want in the hopes they will get angry and leave. In most regions of the country one or two companies dominate the market and without competition, they will naturally exploit their monopoly or duopoly and continue to raise premiums. Nothing in this bill provides any incentives to stop this.


The second problem is that since people without insurance have no where to turn, insurance companies can try to weasel out of their obligations. For example, the bill says companies can't cancel policies except in a case of fraud. Suppose you were an insurance company lawyer, what would you do? Most likely you would have new applicants fill out forms asking them to list every doctor visit in their entire lives and also to authorize the company to ask for all the applicant's medical records. If someone got expensively sick, then the company would get all the medical records looking for some detail not mentioned on the application form and claim fraud. The insured person might be able to go to court, but litigation could take years and the result would be uncertain. In a world with competition, if a company did this too often, word would get around and it would lose business.But in the absence of competition, there is no real reason for a company to stop this practice.


And this brings us right back to the original debate from the summer: the infamous "public option" aka "government run" health care debate. However, as public opinion polls have suggested all Fall, most of the country believes this can be done without a "public option" (see here). A majority of American believe there is a way to keep the companies honest and that the answer is competition from the private sector. If the antitrust exemption for insurance companies were repealed and insurance companies were allowed to operate anywhere in the country, any region dominated by one or two companies with sky-high premiums would likely be seen as a business opportunity by some competitors. This was the essence of the Wyden-Bennett bill, but it didn't go anywhere despite the Republicans generally supporting the idea of competitive free markets. They could have gone along with the idea of health-case reform under the condition that it was a private-sector solution. But Democrats chose not to go this route.

No matter what the Senate bill ultimately looks like, it is going to have to be reconciled with the House bill. As of right now, the two bills differ in some key ways. The House bill gets its money by raising the income tax on high-income individuals. The Senate bill gets its money through an excise tax on gold-plated insurance plans. The lack of a public option in the Senate bill may not be an issue though as House majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has already said he is willing to jettison the public option and Medicare expansion to get a bill passed.


In the end, it is very unlikely that the Health Care Bill, as we knew it this summer, will ever come to fruition. The tea-parties and public opinion polls have swayed enough moderates in the Democratic caucus to ultimately kill the public option and anything associated with a public option. It will be very interesting to see who takes the blame for this within the Democratic Party. This was President Obama's prized initiative coming out of the election last year and within 12 months his big tent coalition in Washington has started to drift away. Will Obama's inexperience as a leader and inabilities to please his liberal base result in a backlash within his own party, driving his approval numbers even lower? Only time will tell....



O yeah, I almost forgot. Can you hear the snickers coming from the Hilary camp? I sure can...

Monday, December 14, 2009

Jingle Bells: The Story Behind the Song

***Thanks to Mom for providing the source***

Ace Collins

Jingle Bells is perhaps the most well-known, most sung Christmas carol in America. For millions, this simple little song is as much a part of Christmas as Santa, reindeer, greeting cards, family dinners, evergreen trees, mistletoe, and presents. Yet in one of the season's greatest ironies, "Jingle Bells" does not contain a single reference to the holiday with which it is associated and was actually written for a completely different day of celebration.

Medford, Massachusetts native James S. Pierpont had always shown a great deal of musical talent. As a child he not only sang in church, but played the organ. As an adult, Pierpont continued to assist his father, the pastor of Medford's Unitarian Church, by working with the choirs and musicians. Around 1840 young Peirpont was given the assignment to write special music for a Thanksgiving service. As James sat in his father's home at 87 Mystic Street contemplating his chore, through a window he watched young me riding their sleds down a hill. Bundling up to ward off the extremely cold weather, Pierpont stepped outside. Caught up in the moment, recalling the many times he had also raced sleds and sleighs sporting bands of merry, jingling bells, he not only watched, but also began to root for the participants. Within an hour he was congratulating the day's winner.

As he stepped back into the house, a melody came to him: while he warned himself by the fireplace, James hummed the little ditty. Feeling as if this just might be the foundation for the music his father's church program needed, Pierpont threw on his coat and trudged through the snow to the home of Mrs. Otis Waterman. Mrs. Waterman owned the only piano in Medford. When the woman answered the door, James matter-of-factly said, "I have a little tune in my head." The homeowner was familiar with James, knew what he wanted, and immediately stepped aside.

As he sat down at the old instrument and worked out the melody, Mrs. Waterman carefully listened, then said, "that is a merry little jingle you have there." When he finished a few moments later, the woman assured James that the song would catchon around town. Later that evening, Pierpont combined his "jingle" with his observations of the day's sled races and his memories of racing horse-drawn sleighs. Just that quickly a legendary song was born.

James taught his "One Horse Open Sleigh" to the choir at the Medford Church. The fully harmonized arrangement was then presented at the annual Thanksgiving service. Since Thanksgiving was the most important holiday in New England at the time, there was a large audience when "One Horse Open Sleigh" debuted. The number went over so well that many of the church members asked James and the choir to perform it again at the Christmas service. Although a song that mentioned dating and betting on a horse race hardly seemed appropriate for church, "One Horse Open Sleigh" was such a smash at the second performance that scores of Christmas visitors to the Medford sanctuary took it back to their own communities. Due to the fact that they had heard it on the twenty-fifth of December, they taught it to their friends and family as a Christmas song.

Pierpont had no idea his little jingle would have such infectious power; he knew only that folks seemed to like his "winter" song. So when he moved to Savannah, Georgia, he took "One Horse Open Sleigh" with him. He found a publisher for the song in 1857, yet it was not until the Salem Evening News did a story about the carol in 1864 that James truly understood he had written something special. By then, the song was fast becoming one of the most popular carols in New England, as well as rushing across the man's adopted South. Within twenty years "Jingle Bells" was probably the best known caroling song in the country.


Dashing through the snow
In a one-horse open sleigh
Through the fields we go
Laughing all the way.
Bells on bob-tail ring
Making spirits bright
What fun it is to ride and sing
A sleighing song tonight.

Chorus:
Jingle Bells, jingle bells
Jingle all the way.
Oh what fun it is to ride
In a one-horse open sleigh, O
Jingle bells, jingle bells
Jingle all the way.
O what fun it is to ride
In a one-horse open sleigh.

A day or two ago
I thought I'd take a ride
And soon Miss Fanny Bright
Was seated by my side;
The horse was lean and lank
Misfortune seemed his lot,
We ran into a drifted bank
And there we got upsot.

Chorus:
Jingle Bells, jingle bells....


A day or two ago
The story I must tell
I went out on the snow
And on my back I fell;
A gent was riding by
In a one-horse open sleigh
He laughed at me as
I there sprawling laid
But quickly drove away.

Chorus:


Now the ground is white,
Go it while you're young.
Take the girls along
And sing the sleighing song.
Just bet a bog-tailed bay,
Two-forty as his speed,
Hitch him to an open sleigh
And crack! You'll take the lead.

Chorus:



Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Alabama vs Texas

In the long history of the Alabama and Texas football programs, the two teams have met just eight times on the gridiron, with Texas holding a 7-0-1 advantage over Alabama. Over the next few weeks Roll Bama Roll (http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2009/12/8/1190362/alabama-vs-texas-1915#comments) is looking back on each of these contests. I found this one to be very interesting and have decided to re-post it on my site. They kick off with the first ever game between the two programs on Nov. 13, 1915 played in Austin, Texas.

Alabama1915_medium
Alabama's defense steps up in a 1915 game.

Alabama began 1915 with high hopes under first-year coach Thomas Kelly. A player under Alonzo Stagg at the University of Chicago, Kelly was expected to bring the "open style" of ball played in the Midwest to Tuscaloosa.

He certainly brought something. In the first six games of the season, Alabama - then a member of the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association - outscored opponents 190 to 10 and even claimed their first victory over Southern powerhouse Sewanee (The University of the South).

Yet things had taken a turn for the worse in October when Kelly contracted Typhoid fever forcing athletic director Lonnie Noonjin and former Alabama quarterback Farley Moody to take over his duties. It was a tough situation as Alabama began November with a pair of grueling road games.

On Nov. 6, John Heisman's Georgia Tech squad soundly beat Alabama 21-7 before 5,000 fans at Grant Field in Atlanta, Georgia. The weary Alabama players then had to travel more than 800 miles to Austin, Texas to face the Longhorns.

At the time, Texas was coached by was one of the most successful coaches of the early era of Longhorn football, Dave Allerdice. The former Michigan halfback had taken over the team in 1911 at the age of 25 making him the youngest head coach in Texas' history.

Despite his relative youth, Allerdice seemed to know his business. He had gone 19-3 in his first three seasons and his 1915 squad had racked up an impressive season to that point as well. In their first three games the Longhorns had outscored their opponents 223-0, including a UT-record 92-0 victory over Daniel Baker - still the largest margin of victory and points scored in school history.

But a couple of tough losses since then had stiffened the Longhorn's resolve when Alabama arrived at Clark Field in Austin on Nov. 13. According to the Alabama archives, the game was played "on a heavy field in a drizzing rain" limiting the passing attack of both teams.

It turned into a slog with Texas grinding Alabama down "playing straight football by cleverly mixing lines plays with end runs." End Charlie Turner and flanker Bert Walker both scored with plunges through the line but the third Longhorn touchdown came when quarterback (and all-American track standout) Clyde Littlefield ran 53 years to the end zone, dodging no less than seven Alabama tacklers on the way.

The multi-talented W.T. "Bully" VandeGraaff - who would go on to be Alabama's first All-American - was the team's best hope for scoring in his role as kicker. But missed no less than three field goals - the last of which was a 55-yard effort that bounced off one of the uprights near the top. The Longhorns won 20-0.

Despite the loss, the game was a landmark for Alabama since it was the first time the team had traveled outside the southeast to play an opponent. It was the first step in Alabama president George Denny's plan to use the sport to increase the profile of the university.

Alabama returned home and laid a 53-0 beatdown on Mississippi the next week. They finished the season 6-2.

Texas finished with a 6-3 record. It was also the Longhorn's first year in the Southwest Conference and they finshed with a 2-2 record and tying for third. Despite that, Coach Allerdice resigned citing the "super critical nature of the Texas fans." He left Austin with a 33-7 record.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Winter Weather on Friday?

Friday 12:00 am
Friday 6:00 am
Friday noon
Friday 6:00 pm
Saturday 1200 am

I have attached images of the latest model for this coming Friday. They start at midnight and go every six hours till Saturday at midnight. The blue line you see over Texas on the map is they call the 850mb 0 line.. Think of weather as 3D. It's not just what is happening overhead, there are many layers to the atmosphere. Some warmer, some colder.

Each layer is measured in MB (Millibars), 850mb is 5000 feet into the atmosphere. It is usually at 850MB where it is the WARMEST above the surface and usually represents anything north of that line is snow, anything south of the line is rain/sleet/ice.

The 0 stands for 0 celcius, which is the freezing point. The second blue line, around Kansas, is -10 Celsius. For snow to happen it has to be below freezing on EVERY LAYER minus the surface, which can get snow a couple degrees above 0 Celsius. The surface is 1000mb, from about 975mb up it CANNOT be above freezing, otherwise it will NOT be snow. But 90% of the time, the warmest temp will be 850mb and that is why they represent it on that map of where that freezing mark is at 5000 feet..

The models are never PERFECT, but you can almost bet that if you are North or within that 0c line and there is moisture, it will be snow. Of course you will never know until it actually happens, but the latest models are definitely predicting snow all the way to the Gulf Coast on Friday.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Will Your Phone Survive the Winter?

Electronics and cold weather generally do not mix well. But can frigid conditions destroy your cell phone? How much can the small devices withstand before they are put out of commission?

In its December issue, Popular Mechanics enlisted Environ Laboratories in Minneapolis, Minn., to find out by putting six cell phones to the test in extreme cold.

Overall, the phones responded surprisingly well.

At 10 degrees Fahrenheit, only minor effects were observed, such as screens starting to dim and keys slow in response. Meanwhile, at 10 degrees below zero, low battery readings were suddenly displayed by some models. While a couple of phones shut down at 20 degrees below zero, they were restarted quickly.

It was not until 30 degrees below zero that some significant effects were seen, as five of the six exhibited unreadable screens and had battery issues.

At 40 degrees below zero, five of the phones could not be resuscitated. It took another 15 degrees lower before the last phone, a Motorola KRZR, ceased to work.

Despite the frigid experimentation, all of the phones became operable again after they were returned to room temperature.

So, unless you live in an area that experiences extremely harsh winter conditions, your cell phone will probably withstand the cold with only minor, temporary effects.