This Week in the SWC: Season Recap

By: Dave Roberson

The regular season is over and so is my weekly write-up of the SWC. It has been a lot of fun to do this each week and I want to thank John for posting it each week. I also have enjoyed the conversation that some of you have engaged with me on the teams. My next column will be in mid-December as I write about the upcoming bowls, then once a month or so through the off-season. In January I will have to declare a league champion, there is recruiting in February, and then Spring games; should be enough to find a topic or two before we kickoff Labor Day weekend 2011.

I was asked this week by one of our readers how I thought the league performed this year. Right now I am giving the league a B+. The post-season games will determine if the final grade is an A or B. Right now I am giving above expectation performance to A&M, Arkansas, Oklahoma St, SMU, Baylor, and Rice. I am giving par performance to TCU, OU, LSU, and Texas Tech. UH and Texas receive a below expectation performance. It is not just a team’s record that determines my grade, but I give each team a pre-season par performance standard. It is how that team performs against its own standard. You may question how TCU could go 12-0 and only be par. That is because last year they went 12-0 and then lost to Boise St. Should TCU win their BCS bowl game, then they move above par. The reason the league grade is B+ is because of the horrible performance relative to standard for Texas. UH gets a little grace because of the season ending injury to Case Keenan.

Rivalry week lived up to its reputation. Texas took an early lead on A&M and the Aggies had to hang on to win. It was blow for blow in Little Rock with LSU and Arkansas and the Sooners and Cowboys lived up to Bedlam in Stillwater. All three of these games were entertaining and were worthy of national television. Other significant wins were SMU winning the CUSA West, Rice winning their fourth game, and Texas Tech winning their seventh. We cannot underestimate how important this season has been for SMU. Last season was their first bowl game since the Death Penalty; this season they are playing for the championship of CUSA. Way to go Ponies. Rice was impressive with how they made changes on offense during the season (hey Texas, are you paying attention) and closed out by winning three games in the second half of the season. And coming into the season there were some serious question marks around Tech with the nasty divorce of Tech and Coach Leach. Tommy Tuberville really did a nice job getting the Red Raiders to seven wins. And even though they finished their regular season before Thanksgiving, I want to give the Baylor Bears an attaboy for a very solid season.

This week we only have two teams playing, OU in the Big 12 Championship Game against Nebraska and SMU playing in Orlando at UCF for the championship of CUSA. TCU already has won the Mountain West, while both LSU and Arkansas came up just short to Auburn in the SEC West. So how do I see it? Well OU wins and SMU does not. Why does OU win? Well, I see Nebraska losing the game more than OU winning it. I think Nebraska will play tight in their last ever Big 12 game. OU will take advantage of turnovers and win 24-20. SMU played Texas Tech, TCU, and Navy close in three of their five losses, but did not play as well against UH and UTEP. UCF is Top 20 in both Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense. I think UCF will get off to a quick start and win going away 38-17. Even with a loss, SMU will have had their second consecutive very nice season. Good work Coach Jones. And to close out, today we learned that Texas A&M is going to the Cotton Bowl and will probably be playing either LSU or Alabama; it all depends on how Auburn-South Carolina comes out and who the Capital One Bowl selects. But regardless, this is a great opportunity for the Aggies. More on all of the conference teams in the bowls in the next article. Hope your team had a better season than mine, which is a pretty low standard this year.

This Week in the SWC: Rivalry Week

By: Dave Roberson

The ole SWC is back on a roll. Everyone except UH won their non-conference games and the Cougars were at least entertaining in a 41-59 loss to Southern Miss. Actually we went 2-1 against the State of Mississippi with Arkansas beating Mississippi State in 2OT and LSU pulling one out against Ole Miss. Earlier in the season I said that Rice really needed to get to at least three wins and what a way to get their 3^rd. In front of over 15,000 fans at Rice Stadium the Owls set some all time Top 5 School records in a 62-38 win over a formerly a first place East Carolina team. I say let’s have a tip of the hat to the Blue Birds on South Main. OU, OSU, Tech, and Texas all rolled to easy wins, with Baylor being the victim of the Sooners. SMU did what it needed to do and with their win over Marshall will be bowling two years in a row. Great job Mustangs! That leaves us with the game of the weekend in College Station. It was old time football at Kyle field, with all scoring done via putting the foot on the ball; five FGs, three for A&M and two for the Huskers. A huge win for the Aggies in front of 90,000 frenzied fans. Add in a complete meltdown by Bo Pelini on national television and you have the stuff a network dreams about. Wonder if the Big Ten is thinking twice about this Nebraska invite. There was absolutely no news on the BCS front this week. Our top six teams range from TCU at #3 to A&M at # 17. We will take the next look at the bowls after this weekend.

Week 13 sets up three huge rivalry games, OU at OSU, LSU at ARK in Little Rock, and A&M at Texas. Another conference game with bowl implications is UH at Tech. TCU goes out to Albuquerque, Rice hosts UAB, and SMU plays in Tulsa. Baylor is finished for the season and gets to eat turkey and watch football all weekend. Let’s start with UH and Tech. The Cougars are sitting at 5-6 and are one of two teams that have underperformed in 2010. Yes, they lost Case Keenum in the UCLA game, but even so, they should be sitting at seven wins right now. A win in Lubbock will make some lemonade out of this season. I am calling it for the more determined Cougars. SMU is playing a semi-final game with Tulsa. The winner is on the path to the Liberty Bowl. I see a wild one with the Pony Express coming out on top. And Rice will build on its great play last week and roll again at home. New Mexico will win the coin toss, but may not get a first down. This one could be 70-0. TCU needs to look very impressive to stay in the National Championship talk.

Now for the Big Three. LSU will have its hands full with the Hogs. These two teams are very close, both lost at Auburn, whereas LSU beat Alabama in Baton Rouge and ARK lost to the Tide in Fayetteville. It will be a great game, but I like Ryan Mallet and I like the Hogs. Catch this one Saturday on CBS at 2:30 CT. OU and OSU are playing for the Big 12 South. Winner takes all. OSU has the better record and is playing at home, but I cannot remember OSU ever beating OU when an OSU championship was on the line. It will be Bedlam Saturday night at 7 CT on ABC, but it will be the Sooners winning. That brings us to 7 CT Thanksgiving night on ESPN for the Aggies and Horns in Austin. For the past several years Texas has viewed this game as a speed bump on the way to a championship and A&M was merely playing for pride. It is amazing how many times Aggie pride has tripped up a Texas championship. But that is in the past. A&M is on a five game winning streak with back to back wins against OU and Nebraska, while Texas looks like the ancient Israelites wandering around in the wilderness. Let’s hope this is not year one of a 40 year adventure for the Horns. After last weekend, we may have an answer for the cause of this wilderness experience; Insanity. I am sure that you have heard the definition before, doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different result. Here is how it went down last Saturday. It was first and goal from the Florida Atlantic 4 yard line early in the first quarter. All season we have seen Greg Davis call for Cody Johnson to hit the line. He has bravely and valiantly hit that line all season. We have seen Cody Johnson average about 1 yard per carry in all of these red zone attempts. Now, other teams call for their running back to hit a hole, but not Texas; they hit the line. And they hit the line. And they hit the line again. Well Cody hit the line not one time, not two times, not even three times, but count‘em four times inside the 4. Guess what, on 4^th down Cody finally fell into the end zone. A TD, but wait the play was put under review and it was judged that his knee was down before crossing the goal line. FAU gets the ball. After a quick turnover two plays later, Texas gets it back at the 9. So this time Texas did what, call a fade to the corner, NO. Call a quick pitch to D.J. Monroe who is averaging about 9 yards a carry, NO. How about a fake to Cody, roll right, and pass back to the tight end in the back of the end zone, NO. Cody Johnson hit the line. But because FAU could not imagine that Texas would call the same play again, somehow Cody finds a hole and gets 6 yards. This must have set off a celebration in the booth so on second down, guess what, that’s right Cody Johnson hit the line again, this time for 2 yards. With a big third down play coming up, we really do not know what play was called. That was because Gilbert fumbled the snap. But the view from my seats had Cody heading for right guard and all of the receivers blocking. It could have been some kind of fake with Gilbert sprinting around the right side. Nah, it was going to be Cody right up the gut. For the second time in the first quarter, you would think that Mack had become the mad pirate from Lubbock. He is going for it on fourth down. No wimpy FG for the mighty Longhorns. All 60,000 fans were buzzing, that’s right it was only about 40,000 short of a sell out. From the heights of the upper deck end zone a warning is shouted to the FAU Owls defense. WATCH OUT for # 31 over right tackle. Notice they never even go to the left. Anyway, the ball is snapped, that’s correct; it was handed to # 31. But a funny thing happened on the way to right tackle. Cody bounced outside and scored. Pandemonium breaks loose at DKR-Memorial Stadium. A four play 9 yard drive consuming a valuable 2:02 off the clock. Eight consecutive plays inside the 10; eight plays of exactly the same call. On two possessions the mighty Horns amass 13 total yards and one TD; an awesome display of ball control for 1 ½ yards per play. And that my friend is football insanity. So this week as Coach Sherman breaks down the Texas game film, he is going to ask his defensive coordinator what to expect when Texas gets into the Red Zone. If I was A&M, I think I would key on #31. So, how do I see Thursday night, well it goes this way. Texas will have four trips into the Red Zone. That will be good for 12 points. Texas will have a long pass and catch from the 32 for a TD. That’s 19 points. A&M will have 4 TDs and 2 FGs for 34 points. Last time I checked 34 beats 19. A&M will get their 9^th win and Texas will spend the winter looking at a different blocking scheme to open that hole off right guard for #31 in the Red Zone. Congratulations to A&M for a nice season.

This Week in the SWC: Bowl Predictions

Last week played out very close to forecasted. Rice did not pull the upset, but 49-54 was definitely an entertaining game. I also thought UH and Tulsa would be a close game, but 25-28 was lower than expected and I had UH winning that one. And finally, TCU was in a much bigger fight than expected. They collected the win, but lost some valuable votes, possibly hurting their #3 position as the season winds down. They only have one game left and it is in two weeks at New Mexico (1-9). TCU will lose strength of schedule after that game and with no Conference Championship game; they may fall to #4 behind Boise State. Boise State closes with Nevada (9-1, BCS #18) and Utah State (4-6) who played OU close in Norman and has a win over BYU. If TCU does fall to #4 next week, their National Championship dreams are probably finished. As for the games that did go as forecasted, the best was in Waco. A&M has found a QB and is quickly moving up the charts. I am sure Coach Art Briles wishes he could have a do over for the second half, but hand it to the Aggies; this is by far their best season in a very long time. It was not too long ago that a 33-16 win by Oklahoma St in Austin would be one for the ages. This year it is just another win. When Iowa State and Baylor both win in Austin, you look bad if you lose. But the Cowboys did not look bad and they are sitting pretty at 9-1.

The Game of Week 12 is in College Station where the resurgent Aggies will host the 9-1 Cornhuskers. Anyone remember who beat Nebraska this year in Lincoln? Was it OK St or Missouri? I do not think so. If they had won all of their games to this point they would definitely be in the Top 3. Oh well, Texas A&M plans to put them out of their misery and hand them their second loss. While Vegas likes Nebraska by 3, I am going with Kyle Field, the Corps of Cadets, and the Spirit of Aggieland. Tune in at 7 CT on ABC and see if I called this one right. Another game that until this year would be a real yawner is OU in Baylor. OU is better and will win, but Baylor will actually put up a fight this time. Arkansas is taking on a good Mississippi St team in Starkville and LSU catches Ole Miss at home. By late Saturday night, the State of Mississippi should have a couple more losses. If you like offense, show up noon Saturday at Rice Stadium for the East Carolina game. Here are some stats you might like. ECU has scored at least 33 points in 8 of their 10 games, but given up over 42 seven times, including 76 to Navy. Rice scored 49 last week and has given up 30 or more every week, including 64 to Tulsa. I do not think there will be any punts and I do not think Rice will outscore ECU. OK St will scrimmage KU this week as they get ready for OU. That leaves the three teams needing wins to get to a bowl. Tech plays host to Weber State. I thought a Weber was a barbeque pit and that is what Tech will do them, Texas style. SMU should be able to beat Marshall, meaning only Texas will be left. Can you imagine ten of the teams going to bowls at the end of the year and only Rice and Texas not? That’s just plain weird. Well, unlike the Red Raiders and Mustangs who only need one more W, the Horns need two. Texas should prevail this weekend in a much closer than should be win. That would set up a huge game on Turkey night, but that is for discussion next week.

It is time now to start looking at the bowls. Starting at the top, although they have done about as much as they could, I do not see TCU in the National Championship game. They lost their slim chance last week by giving up 35 to San Diego State. The voters were looking for a reason to knock them down and that was it. There next game against New Mexico will hurt them with the computers. Their only hope is that Oregon, Auburn, and Boise State all lose. TCU only goes if they are the lone undefeated. Boise State has done what TCU has not done and that is winning two BCS bowl games. This year’s National Championship Game will NOT be TCU vs. Boise St. That was last year’s Fiesta Bowl and the tie-breaker for this year. Not necessarily the best way to choose, but that’s the hard reality of big time college football. And if you will recall, the Broncos won that one. But TCU does go to a BCS game and I have them in the Sugar Bowl. OK St, OU, and A&M are on a collision course for a three way tie in the Big 12 South. If A&M beats both Nebraska and Texas and OU beats Ok St, then the three are tied with two losses. A&M beat OU, OU beats Ok St, and Ok St beat A&M. It appears that the tie-breaker could be the same as in 2008 with the highest ranked team going to the championship game. That should be OU. I then see OU winning the Big 12 and going to the Fiesta Bowl. With Nebraska kissing off the Big 12, I see the Cotton Bowl inviting OK St to play LSU. The Alamo Bowl will gladly select A&M and the Texas Bowl will take Baylor. Arkansas goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl and Tech is in the Ticketcity Bowl. And finally SMU goes to the Armed Forces Bowl. That leaves three teams home watching all of the games on television; Rice, UH and the once mighty Texas Longhorns.

I will update this through the end of the season, but wanted to get my prediction out there. It should be a great weather weekend for football. I hear that the Aggies are trying to get 90,000 into Kyle Field this weekend. If you are going to College Station, you may want to leave plenty early.

This week in the SWC: Dalton for Heisman?

By: Dave Roberson

Hate to break it to you folks, but TCU is good. The Horned Frogs are #5 in Total Offense, #9 in Scoring Offense, and have the #4 rated QB in Andy Dalton. On the other side of the ball, TCU is #7 in Rushing Defense, #1 in Pass Defense, #1 in Total Defense and #1 in Scoring Defense. I should say TCU is really good. They deserve every bit of their #3 ranking. LSU is good. When your only loss is on the road to the #1 or #2 team in the country, depending on the poll and the week, then you have a good team. Oklahoma St is good, #3 in both Total and Scoring Offense. Probably not as good as LSU, but a good team none the less. Baylor is probably the most improved team in the nation this year and Texas A&M probably wins the mid-season turnaround award. Arkansas and Oklahoma are solid. Tech should easily go bowling and SMU and UH are also only one win away. It is not the usual order we find the teams going into the second Saturday of November, but for the conference as a whole, there is nothing to be down on. Next week I will start projecting bowl bids. Those should be fun to follow.

One week after Baylor takes down Texas, the Ags jump up and bring down OU. It was at home, so not as impressive as what Baylor pulled off the week before, but a win against OU is always something to take with pride. However, I would not want to be the Aggies next year when they go to Norman. If there is the slightest chance, OU will hang a big number on the farmers. But this is 2010 not 11, so let’s keep focused in the present. Great win for the boys in maroon. Tech also makes the honor roll this week. Yes, Mizzou was down after a tough loss to Nebraska last week, but hand it to the Red Raiders for beating a highly ranked team. It is becoming expected this year, but LSU and Arkansas, when not playing Auburn, are having a really good season. The only difference is that LSU did beat Alabama last week; Arkansas did not a few weeks back. But the Hogs ate up South Carolina last Saturday and a season finale in the hills with LSU will determine which is the tougher animal, the Hog or the Tiger. But the story of the week is still TCU. The Purple People Eaters went into Utah and not only demoralized, but also destroyed the previously undefeated Utes 47-7. It was an impressive performance on both sides of the ball. Warning to Auburn and Oregon, you better win out. You lose and you are out of the Championship game.

Week 11 will give us some more good games, especially within the conference. Teams are trying to close out strong. It was not very long ago that a November game in Waco was when you gave away tickets to the Boy Scouts, but the Battle of the Brazos has implications for both teams this year. Baylor really, really wants that eighth win and a nice bowl game and the Aggies want to get to nine wins to show recruits that the fight is back in College Station. Baylor is a great story this year, but I think A&M will pull it out late. I am expecting a fun game to watch with sellout crowd on hand Saturday night in Waco. At 2:30 CT, Tech will be hosting OU. Neither team is as good as a couple of years ago, but OU has better talent and should be able to handle the Red Raiders. The final conference game of the weekend is in Austin. The wide open Cowboys will be going for a trifecta. Coming into 2010, Iowa St, Baylor and Oklahoma St had not beaten Texas since the start of the Big 12. The Cyclones and the Bears passed their exam. Coach Gundy does not want his Cowboys to be the only remaining member of that club. The Cowboys are a 6 ½ point favorites, but I am having a hard time seeing Texas lose four in a row at home. But I could not see them losing three in a row either. In fact, I could not see them losing two in a row. So two, three, four, what’s the difference? So unless the Cowboys with the blue star show up instead, the recently mighty Texas Longhorns are headed for their sixth loss. If you want to witness this feat, ABC is making it available at 7 CT. There is nothing really compelling for the rest of the conference. TCU should go 11-0 after a trip to San Diego. The only way they lose is if they make a wrong turn coming out of the airport and get stuck on that broken down cruise ship in the harbor. ARK will dispatch UTEP and LSU has a scrimmage with UL-M. I am picking SMU to pick up that most important 6^th win at home vs. Marshall and UH will have a shoot out with Tulsa. It will be close, but take UH and take the over. That leaves us with Rice. I decided I could handle both last week and this week at the same time. On the plus side, the Owls were able to hold Tulsa last week to 64 points, but on the minus side 57 of those did come by the end of the 3^rd quarter. But that was last week. This week Rice plays the mighty Green Wave of Tulane (no relation to the Crimson Tide) in the Superdome. Both teams have yielded more than 40 points four times this season. For the 8,000 or so fans that may show up Saturday, they should be in for a high scoring game. I am going to go against Vegas and pick the Owls in an upset.

Let’s hope the rain that has been hanging around this week moves on out and the cool air from last week returns. It is hard to believe, but there are only 4 weeks of football left; well, I should say in a tribute to Veteran’s Day, there are have 5 weeks counting the Army-Navy game Dec. 11. Hope your team has its best game of the season; unless, that is, your team is playing mine.

Post-Election thoughts

For Republicans, Tuesday's election brought about a monumental sweep in the House of Representatives. As of Thursday, it looks like the Republicans will pick up a net of 63 seats when all is said and done. There are a few races where Republicans lead that are still being counted (TX-27, IL-8, CA-20).

Fun fact you won't find anywhere else: the Democrats not only lost 63 seats on Tuesday, but with losses in both Dakotas, MN-8, NM-2, CO-3 etc, Dems will control less than 1/2 of their previous land area.

However, most of the Republican gains came at the expense of the Blue Dogs. Of the 54 Blue Dogs that occupied the House of Representatives last session, six retired or ran for other offices. All six seats were won by Republicans. Of the remaining 48 seats where the incumbent Blue Dog was running, 24 of the Blue Dogs won and 23 lost. One seat, Ben Chandler in KY-06, is still undecided. The net result of this drubbing is that the Democratic caucus will move to the left since the remaining Democrats are freed of at least 29 oesky Blue Dogs. Of course, the Republican caucus will move sharply to the right due to the addition of many tea party candidates. Despite everybody's pro-forma promise to work together for the good of the country, the 112th House is going to be extremely fractious and is likely to accomplish nothing.

List of Blue Dogs:

CD	PVI	Dem candidate	Dem	GOP%	Result
GA-12	D+1	John Barrow*	57%	43%	Won
OR-05	D+1	Kurt Schrader*	51%	46%	Won
IA-03	D+1	Leonard Boswell*	51%	47%	Won
GA-02	D+1	Sanford Bishop*	51%	49%	Won
PA-08	D+2	Patrick Murphy*	46%	54%	Lost
TN-05	D+3	Jim Cooper*	57%	42%	Won
ME-02	D+3	Mike Michaud*	55%	45%	Won
CA-18	D+4	Dennis Cardoza*	58%	42%	Won
CA-47	D+4	Loretta Sanchez*	51%	42%	Won
CA-20	D+5	Jim Costa*	49%	51%	Lost
CA-36	D+12	Jane Harman*	60%	35%	Won
CA-43	D+13	Joe Baca*	65%	35%	Won
CA-01	D+13	Mike Thompson*	63%	32%	Won
CA-29	D+14	Adam Schiff*	65%	32%	Won
GA-13	D+15	David Scott*	69%	31%	Won
TX-28	R+0	Henry Cuellar*	56%	42%	Won
OH-06	R+2	Charlie Wilson*	45%	50%	Lost
IN-02	R+2	Joe Donnelly*	48%	47%	Won
NY-24	R+2	Mike Arcuri*	47%	53%	Lost
NY-20	R+2	Scott Murphy*	45%	55%	Lost
PA-03	R+3	Kathy Dahlkemper*	44%	56%	Lost
KS-03	R+3	Stephene Moore	38%	59%	Dennis Moore retired, seat lost
AZ-08	R+4	Gabrielle Giffords*	49%	48%	Won
MN-07	R+5	Collin Peterson*	55%	38%	Won
VA-02	R+5	Glenn Nye*	42%	53%	Lost
AZ-05	R+5	Harry Mitchell*	42%	53%	Lost
CO-03	R+5	John Salazar*	46%	50%	Lost
NC-07	R+5	Mike McIntyre*	54%	46%	Won
FL-02	R+6	Allen Boyd*	41%	54%	Lost
IN-09	R+6	Baron Hill*	42%	52%	Lost
CA-04	R+6	Betsy Markey*	41%	53%	Lost
NC-11	R+6	Heath Shuler*	54%	46%	Won
PA-04	R+6	Jason Altmire*	51%	49%	Won
TN-08	R+6	Roy Herron	39%	59%	John Tanner retired, seat lost
PA-17	R+6	Tim Holden*	56%	44%	Won
AR-04	R+7	Mike Ross*	58%	40%	Won
OH-18	R+7	Zack Space*	40%	54%	Lost
AR-01	R+8	Chad Causey	43%	52%	Marion Berry retired, seat lost
PA-10	R+8	Chris Carney*	45%	55%	Lost
IN-08	R+8	Trent VanHaaften	38%	57%	Brad Ellsworth ran for Senate, seat lost
KY-06	R+9	Ben Chandler*	50%	50%	Tie
SD-AL	R+9	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin*	46%	48%	Lost
ND-AL	R+10	Earl Pomeroy*	45%	55%	Lost
GA-08	R+10	Jim Marshall*	47%	53%	Lost
LA-03	R+12	Ravi Sangisetty	36%	64%	Charlie Melancon ran for Senate, seat lost
TN-06	R+13	Brett Carter	29%	87%	Bart Gordon retired, seat lost
MD-01	R+13	Frank Kratovil*	42%	55%	Lost
TN-04	R+13	Lincoln Davis*	38%	57%	Lost
OK-02	R+14	Dan Boren*	57%	43%	Won
MS-01	R+14	Travis Childers*	41%	55%	Lost
UT-02	R+15	Jim Matheson*	51%	46%	Won
AL-02	R+16	Bobby Bright*	49%	51%	Lost
ID-01	R+18	Walt Minnick*	41%	51%	Lost
MS-04	R+20	Gene Taylor*	47%	52%	Lost