Last week played out very close to forecasted. Rice did not pull the upset, but 49-54 was definitely an entertaining game. I also thought UH and Tulsa would be a close game, but 25-28 was lower than expected and I had UH winning that one. And finally, TCU was in a much bigger fight than expected. They collected the win, but lost some valuable votes, possibly hurting their #3 position as the season winds down. They only have one game left and it is in two weeks at New Mexico (1-9). TCU will lose strength of schedule after that game and with no Conference Championship game; they may fall to #4 behind Boise State. Boise State closes with Nevada (9-1, BCS #18) and Utah State (4-6) who played OU close in Norman and has a win over BYU. If TCU does fall to #4 next week, their National Championship dreams are probably finished. As for the games that did go as forecasted, the best was in Waco. A&M has found a QB and is quickly moving up the charts. I am sure Coach Art Briles wishes he could have a do over for the second half, but hand it to the Aggies; this is by far their best season in a very long time. It was not too long ago that a 33-16 win by Oklahoma St in Austin would be one for the ages. This year it is just another win. When Iowa State and Baylor both win in Austin, you look bad if you lose. But the Cowboys did not look bad and they are sitting pretty at 9-1.
The Game of Week 12 is in College Station where the resurgent Aggies will host the 9-1 Cornhuskers. Anyone remember who beat Nebraska this year in Lincoln? Was it OK St or Missouri? I do not think so. If they had won all of their games to this point they would definitely be in the Top 3. Oh well, Texas A&M plans to put them out of their misery and hand them their second loss. While Vegas likes Nebraska by 3, I am going with Kyle Field, the Corps of Cadets, and the Spirit of Aggieland. Tune in at 7 CT on ABC and see if I called this one right. Another game that until this year would be a real yawner is OU in Baylor. OU is better and will win, but Baylor will actually put up a fight this time. Arkansas is taking on a good Mississippi St team in Starkville and LSU catches Ole Miss at home. By late Saturday night, the State of Mississippi should have a couple more losses. If you like offense, show up noon Saturday at Rice Stadium for the East Carolina game. Here are some stats you might like. ECU has scored at least 33 points in 8 of their 10 games, but given up over 42 seven times, including 76 to Navy. Rice scored 49 last week and has given up 30 or more every week, including 64 to Tulsa. I do not think there will be any punts and I do not think Rice will outscore ECU. OK St will scrimmage KU this week as they get ready for OU. That leaves the three teams needing wins to get to a bowl. Tech plays host to Weber State. I thought a Weber was a barbeque pit and that is what Tech will do them, Texas style. SMU should be able to beat Marshall, meaning only Texas will be left. Can you imagine ten of the teams going to bowls at the end of the year and only Rice and Texas not? That’s just plain weird. Well, unlike the Red Raiders and Mustangs who only need one more W, the Horns need two. Texas should prevail this weekend in a much closer than should be win. That would set up a huge game on Turkey night, but that is for discussion next week.
It is time now to start looking at the bowls. Starting at the top, although they have done about as much as they could, I do not see TCU in the National Championship game. They lost their slim chance last week by giving up 35 to San Diego State. The voters were looking for a reason to knock them down and that was it. There next game against New Mexico will hurt them with the computers. Their only hope is that Oregon, Auburn, and Boise State all lose. TCU only goes if they are the lone undefeated. Boise State has done what TCU has not done and that is winning two BCS bowl games. This year’s National Championship Game will NOT be TCU vs. Boise St. That was last year’s Fiesta Bowl and the tie-breaker for this year. Not necessarily the best way to choose, but that’s the hard reality of big time college football. And if you will recall, the Broncos won that one. But TCU does go to a BCS game and I have them in the Sugar Bowl. OK St, OU, and A&M are on a collision course for a three way tie in the Big 12 South. If A&M beats both Nebraska and Texas and OU beats Ok St, then the three are tied with two losses. A&M beat OU, OU beats Ok St, and Ok St beat A&M. It appears that the tie-breaker could be the same as in 2008 with the highest ranked team going to the championship game. That should be OU. I then see OU winning the Big 12 and going to the Fiesta Bowl. With Nebraska kissing off the Big 12, I see the Cotton Bowl inviting OK St to play LSU. The Alamo Bowl will gladly select A&M and the Texas Bowl will take Baylor. Arkansas goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl and Tech is in the Ticketcity Bowl. And finally SMU goes to the Armed Forces Bowl. That leaves three teams home watching all of the games on television; Rice, UH and the once mighty Texas Longhorns.
I will update this through the end of the season, but wanted to get my prediction out there. It should be a great weather weekend for football. I hear that the Aggies are trying to get 90,000 into Kyle Field this weekend. If you are going to College Station, you may want to leave plenty early.
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