The new rules state that no delegates to the national convention may be chosen before the first Tuesday in March--except for delegates from New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Nevertheless, Iowa will hold its caucuses in January because the caucuses don't select any delegates to the national convention, just to the county conventions, which then elect delegates to the state convention, which chooses the national delegates.
Anyways, the decision to let Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada go first was not brought down by Moses from Mt. Sinai, but does have some real value. First, they are from four different parts of the country, which gives a better idea of how the various candidates might do than, say, having all of New England vote in February and all of the West vote in March. Second, they are all small states, which means that candidates without massive bank accounts can complete if they are determined enough. If California went first, any candidate who didn't have $30 million in the bank by the end of 2011 would have no chance.
Furthermore, the Republicans' new rules prohibit winner-take-all events before April 1, so delegates won in March will be divided proportionally to the votes obtained. This change will slow down the process by preventing any candidate from collecting large blocks of delegates early on. Also, after the first four, about a dozen low-population states go next. Then come the biggies in three rounds. Wikipedia has a nice colored map showing the order.
While it is hard to say this far out what impact the new rules will have, it will be extremely unlikely for, say Sarah Palin, to win Iowa, skip new Hampshire, and then win all the marbles on a Super Tuesday a week or two later. The ultimate winner will need to be a seasoned veteran by the time 2012 rolls around and he (or she) will HAVE to be able to win states in the North.
No comments:
Post a Comment