Monday, November 1, 2010

Election Forecast

Tomorrow is the day millions of voters will head to the polls and vote in 435 Representatives and 37 Senators to represent the 112th United States Congress. On the eve before the mid-term elections, the consensus is that the Republican Party will have a big night. However, the bigger question is will it be a wave that shifts the political sands or a tsunami that redraws the colors of the electoral map?

Senate Forecast:
Of the 37 Senate races tomorrow night, there are 15 to keep a close eye on. These races will tell us exactly how big of a Republican storm it will be. Below I have included a chart that shows the competitive races and the ones that will more than likely switch seats. Note: the prediction column is my personal predictions. With that being said, I am predicting the 112th Congress to entail an eight (8) seat gain for the Republicans, bringing the total to 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent (Sen. Joe Lieberman, CT).

Races listed from EDT-AKDT (Alaska Daylight Time):
House Forecast:
As for the House races, these are a lot harder to predict given the number of races that occur and the limited polling data from these races. However, there are around 100 races that are expected to be very competitive tomorrow and the Republicans need to pick up 40 additional seats to take control of the House or Representatives. The general consensus is somewhere around a +55 seat gain for the Republicans. However, I would not be surprised if it is larger. Good news is that we'll find out early in the night to how big of a night it will be for the Republicans because if they do well in New England and Mid-Atlantic states, then they will surely do well throughout the rest of the country.

Recap:
Republicans gain +8 seats in the Senate and +55 in the House.

Stay tuned for post election recap tomorrow night.

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